Sintra Election Poll Reveals Tight Race as Housing Access Becomes Top Voter Concern

Sintra Election Poll: Housing Crisis Dominates as Mayoral Race Tightens

A new opinion poll ahead of the October 12th municipal elections in Sintra has revealed that access to housing is the most critical issue for voters, in a political landscape marked by a technical tie between the three main candidates. The study, conducted by the Social Sciences Institute (ICS) and ISCTE for the SIC television network and Expresso newspaper, underscores the immense pressure on mayoral hopefuls to address the region's escalating property crisis. The findings indicate a highly competitive race where housing policy could be the deciding factor for one of the Lisbon metropolitan area's largest and most strategic municipalities.

The poll shows candidates Ana Mendes Godinho, representing a coalition of the Socialist Party (PS) and Livre, and Marco Almeida, of the 'Sintra a Mudar' coalition (PSD/IL/PAN), are statistically tied, with each securing 21% of direct voter intentions. Trailing by a narrow margin is Rita Matias of the Chega party, who captured 19% support. The high number of undecided voters, at 13%, combined with a potential abstention rate of 19%, introduces significant volatility, suggesting the election's outcome is far from certain. When statistical projections are applied to the undecided, Ana Mendes Godinho emerges with a slight two-point lead over Marco Almeida, who in turn maintains a two-point lead over Rita Matias.

The survey's most definitive finding was the overwhelming concern among Sintra's residents regarding housing. When asked to rate the municipality's most pressing problems on a scale of zero to ten, 'access to housing' received a dismal score of less than three, placing it at the top of the list of public grievances. This result sends a clear message to the candidates that the electorate demands concrete and immediate solutions to the affordability and availability challenges that have come to define the local real estate market. Other issues of significant concern included corruption, traffic management, and the cleanliness of public spaces, all of which also received negative evaluations from the populace.

In terms of candidate perception, the poll offered insights into how the electorate views the frontrunners. Marco Almeida, who is making his third bid for the mayor's office, was identified by voters as the candidate most associated with positive attributes such as experience, competence, honesty, and leadership. This perception could prove advantageous in a climate where voters are seeking a capable manager to navigate the municipality's complex urban challenges. Meanwhile, the evaluation of the incumbent mayor, Basílio Horta, was split, with nearly equal numbers of positive and negative reviews of his tenure, indicating a significant portion of the electorate may be open to a change in leadership.

The poll's methodology involved 803 valid interviews conducted by GFK Metris between September 3rd and 14th. The stated margin of error for the survey is ±3.5%, with a 95% confidence level. The intense focus on housing in the poll aligns with broader national trends but is particularly acute in Sintra, a municipality that has experienced significant population growth and real estate valuation increases in recent years. The election results will be closely watched, as the new administration's approach to urban planning and housing policy will have long-term consequences for residents, developers, and investors alike.

The political platforms of the leading candidates are expected to be heavily scrutinized in the final weeks of the campaign, particularly their specific proposals for tackling the housing shortage. The tight electoral race, combined with the clear mandate from voters, ensures that the debate over Sintra's future development will be central to the political discourse. The outcome on October 12th will not only determine the next mayor but also set the strategic direction for addressing the most significant challenge facing the municipality today. Understand policy impacts on your Portugal property plans at realestate-lisbon.com.