Lisbon to Become Portugal's Most Populous Region Amid National Decline
Portugal's National Statistics Institute (INE) has released a comprehensive long-term population projection, indicating that the country's resident population is expected to decrease to 8.3 million by 2100 from its current 10.7 million. The statistical announcement, based on the institute's central projection scenario, highlights a significant demographic transformation over the coming decades, with major implications for regional population distribution and economic structures. A key finding of the report is the projected rise of the Greater Lisbon area, which is forecast to become the nation's most populous region by the early 2080s, surpassing the historically dominant North region.
The data, published on Tuesday, is derived from the 'Resident Population Projections 2025-2100' exercise, which utilizes a cohort-component method based on population estimates from the end of 2024. The INE developed four distinct scenarios—low, central, high, and no-migration—to model potential demographic futures based on varying assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration. The central scenario, considered the most likely trajectory, predicts a temporary population increase to a peak of 10.9 million in 2029, followed by a sustained decline. The country is expected to fall below the 10-million-inhabitant threshold in 2057 and the 9-million mark in 2079.
The numerical findings detail a dramatic shift in the country's age structure. The number of young people is projected to fall from 1.4 million to one million, while the elderly population will increase from 2.6 million to 3.1 million. This will cause the working-age population (15-64 years) to shrink significantly, from 6.8 million in 2024 to 4.2 million by 2100. Consequently, the elderly dependency ratio—the number of people aged 65 and over for every 100 people of working age—is expected to nearly double, rising from 39 in 2024 to 73 in 2100. This structural aging process presents long-term challenges for Portugal's social security system and labor market.
The geographic breakdown of these projections reveals a divergent future for Portugal's regions. While the overall trend is one of population loss, the INE's report specifies that Greater Lisbon, the Algarve, and the Setúbal Peninsula are exceptions and are expected to maintain or grow their populations. This regional polarization will concentrate demographic and economic vitality in these coastal and metropolitan areas. The forecast that Greater Lisbon will become the country's demographic center underscores its growing importance as the primary hub for economic activity and residential demand.
In terms of time-period comparisons, the report contrasts the projected decline with a recent period of growth, noting that Portugal's resident population had increased for six consecutive years up to 2024. However, the underlying drivers of demographic change—namely, low fertility rates and an aging native population—are set to assert themselves more strongly in the coming years, leading to the long-term reversal of this trend. The projections serve as a critical planning tool for policymakers addressing everything from pension sustainability to regional development.
Analysis of different market segments will be crucial. The aging population will likely increase demand for specific types of housing, such as smaller, accessible homes and properties with proximity to healthcare services. In contrast, the shrinking number of young people could reduce demand for larger family homes in depopulating inland regions. For real estate investors, this suggests a long-term strategic focus on markets like Lisbon and the Algarve, where demographic trends support sustained housing demand.
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Industry experts note that these demographic shifts will reshape the Portuguese real estate landscape. 'The INE's projections confirm that investment strategies must become more geographically focused,' stated a Lisbon-based economic analyst. 'The resilience of the Lisbon, Setúbal, and Algarve property markets is underpinned by these powerful demographic tailwinds. We anticipate continued investor interest in these areas, driven by their status as centers of population and economic growth.' This sentiment reflects a growing consensus that future opportunities will be concentrated in a few key regions.
The government and regulatory bodies will need to respond to this data with targeted policies. Strategies to manage urban growth in Lisbon, while also addressing depopulation in other areas, will be essential. Furthermore, the significant strain on the social security system will require comprehensive reforms to ensure its long-term viability. The projections provide a clear evidence base for initiating these difficult but necessary conversations about the country's future.
Historically, Portugal has experienced several waves of demographic change, including periods of significant emigration. However, the current projections point to a more structural, long-term decline driven by internal aging. The role of immigration will be critical in mitigating the extent of this decline. The 'no-migration' scenario, which results in a population of just 5.4 to 5.99 million, illustrates the vital importance of attracting and retaining foreign residents to support the country's demographic and economic health.
The INE has clarified that these projections are conditional and not deterministic forecasts, as they depend on evolving behaviors related to fertility, mortality, and migration. The institute will continue to monitor these trends and update its projections accordingly, providing ongoing guidance for public and private sector planning. Future reports will refine these estimates as new data becomes available.
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