Lisbon Housing Supply Set for Major Expansion with 4,560 Homes Approved
A recent statistical announcement from Confidencial Imobiliário, based on data from the Lisbon Municipal Council, indicates a significant future increase in the city's housing stock. The analysis of licensing data from 2022 to mid-2025 reveals that 4,560 housing units are fully approved within subdivision projects and are poised to enter the construction phase. This figure represents a substantial 46% potential increase over the 9,850 units currently under construction, signaling a robust pipeline aimed at addressing the capital's housing demand.
The data was sourced directly from the Lisbon Municipal Council's official records of construction permits ('alvarás de obras') and subdivision project approvals ('loteamentos'). The methodology involved aggregating all residential units licensed between January 2022 and June 2025, then segmenting them into units already under construction versus those approved but not yet started. This provides a clear picture of both current activity and short-term supply potential. For investors, understanding these trends is key, and further analysis can be found in our Market Intelligence and Analysis blog.
The numerical findings are stark: a total of 14,410 new homes were licensed in the approximately four-year period. Of this total, 68% (9,850 homes) are actively being built. The remaining 32% (4,560 homes) are what the report highlights as the immediate future supply, ready for ground to be broken. This suggests a significant volume of housing could enter the market in the coming years, potentially impacting market dynamics.
The geographic breakdown of this activity is concentrated within the Lisbon municipality, with large-scale projects playing an increasingly dominant role. These 'loteamentos' have shifted from contributing 25-35% of new licensed homes in 2022-2023 to between 70% and 90% in 2024-2025. This indicates a strategic move by developers and city planners towards larger, more integrated residential projects rather than smaller, one-off buildings. Exploring different areas is crucial, and our Lisbon Neighborhoods Guide can be a valuable resource.
A year-over-year comparison shows a 17% increase in the number of licensed homes in 2024 compared to 2023, totaling around 3,800 units. The first half of 2025 has continued this trend, with 2,000 new homes approved, which is a 6% increase over the semi-annual average of 2024. This demonstrates sustained momentum in the city's development sector.
The analysis further breaks down the market segments, noting that the 26 approved subdivisions since 2022 average 267 units each. This average size is increasing, moving from 256 units per project in 2022 to 365 in 2025, reflecting the trend towards larger developments which often include a mix of housing types, from affordable to luxury. Investors interested in this segment may wish to connect with luxury construction specialists.
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An economist from a leading Portuguese bank, commenting on the data, stated, "The acceleration in licensing, particularly for large-scale projects, is a direct response to the structural housing deficit in Lisbon. While it takes time for these licenses to translate into completed homes, this is the most positive forward-looking indicator for supply that we have seen in years."
In response to these figures, a spokesperson for the Lisbon Municipal Council noted that the administration is focused on streamlining the approval process for projects that align with the city's master plan, particularly those that include public amenities and affordable housing components. The government's goal is to facilitate an increase in supply to help stabilize the market.
Historically, Lisbon's new housing supply has lagged behind demand, a key factor in the price appreciation seen over the last decade. This new data suggests a potential shift in this dynamic, although the actual impact will depend on the pace of construction and absorption by the market. The last major housing boom in the early 2000s was followed by a market correction, a history that analysts are watching closely.
Confidencial Imobiliário has indicated that it will continue to track this data, with the next report covering the second half of 2025 expected to be released in early 2026. These future reports will be critical in assessing whether this licensing boom translates into a tangible increase in available housing.
Stay informed on Lisbon property market developments at realestate-lisbon.com.